Hay quienes se preguntan si la presidencia Obama no ha comenzado a fracasar, antes de tiempo, víctima de un programa de salvación del sistema bancario estadounidense que se teme ineficaz e inapropiado, cuando crece la vulnerabilidad de los bancos europeos, españoles en particular.
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Las más serias reservas contra los proyectos económicos del presidente Obama las expuso hace días Martin Wolf, en un artículo publicado en Financial Times, que hoy “repica” Le Monde: Has Barack Obama’s presidency already failed?… [ .. ] [Financial Times, 10 febrero 09. Martin Wolf, Why Obama’s new Tarp will fail to rescue the banks].
Las reservas sobre la “vulnerabilidad creciente” de los bancos europeos (españoles, en particular) las expone el mismo Wolfgang Münchau que ya predijo con inquietante éxito el tsunami inmobiliario que esperaba a España, mucho antes del estallido de la crisis financiera internacional. Ahora teme la fragilidad amenazante de los bancos españoles y europeos:
[ .. ] three effects with progressively destructive force. The first is that the stimulus is much less effective than it could otherwise have been. When everybody tries to gain a competitive advantage over each other, the effects usually cancel out.
Second, the stimulus and bank rescue packages harm the single European market directly. The French subsidies are more blatant, as is the protectionist rhetoric of its president. But everybody in Europe plays the same game. It is not as though the single market is the default position for European commerce. Much of the service sector is exempted. Europe lacks an effective pan-European retail infrastructure and retail banking system. Reversing this programme long before it is completed would be a mistake.
Third, and most destructive, the combined decision on stimulus and financial rescue packages poses an existential threat to monetary union. A blanket loan guarantee to every bank, as most governments have granted, in combination with indiscriminate capital injections and a reluctance to restructure, will mean the transformation of private into sovereign default risk – aggravated further by the economic downturn. Some insolvent banks are now owned by the state, while the bulk of damaged, not-yet-insolvent banks are lingering on, hoarding cash. This programme is a drain of resources with no resolution in sight.
I would now expect several eurozone countries with weak banking sectors to get into serious difficulties as the crisis continues. There is a risk of cascading sovereign defaults. If this was limited to countries of the size of Ireland or Greece, one could solve this problem through a bail-out. But solvency risk is not a problem confined to small countries. The banking sectors in Italy, Spain and Germany are increasingly vulnerable. [ .. ] [Financial Times, 15 febrero 09. Wolfgang Münchau, Narrow-minded leadership hurts Europe].
Las negritas son mías.