“Vive en color” [ .. ] Madrid, una mañana de invierno… políticos garrapatas.
[ .. ]
Cosas del Economist, con una visión tirando a inquieta o muy inquieta sobre el futuro inmediato de España; entre la inquietud y el resentimiento:
“Año de turbulencias electorales”.
“Cambios que pueden ser dramáticos”.
“La Constitución pudiera no sobrevivir”.
“Rajoy tendrá que luchar en dos frentes: evitar la desintegración de España, tras unas elecciones anticipadas en Cataluña; y evitar otros desastres electorales en las elecciones regionales y municipales”… Etcétera.
… a juicio del Economist, las sombras de Zapatero y Hugo Chávez pesan sobre España como nubarrones tóxicas.
Economist, 1 enero 2015
A year of electoral turbulence lies ahead
SPAIN is facing a year of bruising, confrontational politics, with several elections that could result in dramatic changes in the way the country is governed. Not least, the constitution, which has underpinned democracy ever since 1978, may not survive in its present form. The prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, and his centre-right Popular Party (PP) may soon find themselves fighting on two fronts at once: trying to save Spain from disintegration if snap elections based around independence are held in Catalonia; and fighting to stop the PP being kicked into third place nationally when other regions and municipalities vote in May.
Nor do Mr Rajoy’s troubles end there. A general election looms in December 2015 which could result in either the Socialists or an upstart leftist party, Podemos, ousting Mr Rajoy and dismantling economic reforms brought in to tackle Spain’s debt crisis. The country is now outperforming most of the rest of Europe. But the scars left by austerity and a lengthy recession have not yet healed. Unemployment remains at 24% and GDP is still below its previous peak.
The timing of a Catalan election depends on the regional president, Artur Mas. He wants a quick vote to serve as a plebiscite on independence, but is also anxious not to hand power to his rival, the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) party. To that end he wants the ERC to stand on the same list as the separatist wing of his own Convergence and Union (CiU) coalition. The ERC prefers to be on a separate list of its own, but has guaranteed Mr Mas the presidency. “The important thing is the [Catalan] republic, not the presidency,” says the party’s leader, Oriol Junqueras. If agreement does not come soon, the election may not happen. A pre-Christmas poll found the parties neck-and-neck. But backing for independence has dropped from 47.1% in April to 44.5% now. Adding to the uncertainty is the rise of a left-wing party, Podemos, which supports a referendum but is mistrusted by both Catalan and Basque separatists.
The eruption of Podemos, which calls Spain’s right “the enemy” but despises the entire political establishment, has set the tone for a newly combative era and changed the game. Podemos, which first appeared in May’s European elections, is now intent on becoming the country’s biggest party. The newish Socialist leader, Pedro Sánchez, has been pushed leftward, ruling out a “grand coalition” with Mr Rajoy and denouncing as mistaken reforms introduced by a former Socialist prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, at the height of the financial crisis in 2011. He would alter the constitution, softening a Zapatero measure that caps future budgets and further federalising Spain in a bid to keep the Catalans happy.
But Mr Sánchez, appointed in July, has yet to secure the full backing of his party. The Socialists are losing voters to Podemos, whose leaders were once cheerleaders for anti-capitalism, debt-restructuring, “degrowth” and even Venezuela’s former president, Hugo Chávez. Podemos is distancing itself from some of such nuttier stuff, but the political programme it is drawing up will still be far to the left of the Socialists. The party wants a big constitutional rewrite. It may seek alliances with a future left-wing Syriza government in Greece (it welcomed this week’s news of an early Greek election) and with Sinn Fein in Ireland. Podemos clearly has Spain’s financial and political elites in its sights. That appeals to many voters, who blame them for the debt crisis and its aftermath.
Mr Rajoy’s hopes of eventual victory rest on his boast to have ended Spain’s economic crisis. Spanish voters seem disinclined to show him much gratitude.
Las negritas son mías.