Európolis

WSJ, 9 mayo 06

La prensa financiera estima que los tipos bancarios continuarán subiendo, ¿hasta donde..? El Economist afirma que “España e Irlanda están particularmente expuesta a los tipos altos”. Algunos analistas citados por Financial Times estiman que el umbral del 4 % precipitaría la recesión en España. El Internacional Herald Tribune ironiza: “El BCE promete más..”.

Follow up:

Financial Times estima que la próxima subida se consumará entre julio y agosto. Wall Street Journal publica un gráfico muy pedagógico, comparando la evolución de los tipos del BCE, la Federal Reserve y los bancos centrales del Jaón e Inglaterra, que comenta de este modo:

Interest rates world-wide have been on the upswing, with central banks hearing inflation's footsteps more clearly. The European Central Bank on Thursday raised its key rate a quarter point to 2.75%, the third increase in three months, and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet left the door open to more.

• The U.S. Federal Reserve has been swifter to raise its target rate, lifting it a quarter point at 16 straight meetings since June 2004. Recent market uncertainty about the next move has given way to resignation that another increase to 5.25% is in store this month, due mostly to comments by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and other officials that inflation indicators are outside their comfort levels.
• The Bank of Japan has telegraphed an end to its long-held zero-interest-rate policy, but so far has given no clear sign of the timing. Recent comments by BOJ officials have expressed continued support for current economic stimulation, though markets have braced for a possible increase as soon as next month.
• The Bank of England left its key interest rate unchanged Thursday for the 10th consecutive month. Though one member of the Monetary Policy Committee last month voted to raise rates to 4.75%, most economists expect them to remain in a holding pattern through 2006.
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Amenazas para el "modelo" español.