Seducidos por las sirenas audiovisuales, los españoles creyeron que podrían vivir mejor, ser más solidarios, trabajando menos, endeudándose más, gastando con dinero que pagaban otros contribuyentes europeos.

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Desde mucho antes de la crisis, los más fríos analistas europeos subrayaron que tal comportamiento irresponsable (del gobierno español y de los españoles) era sencillamente incompatible con la amarga disciplina de la zona euro: ¿Saldrá España del euro..?, El Guardian duda del “compromiso” español con el euro. Corría la primavera / verano del 2006…

El sonambulismo ante la crisis, primero, y la escalada de desastres que siguieron, después, terminaron instalando a España en un irónico Club porcino, pelotón de los torpes de la zona euro, penosa consecuencia de divergencias de fondo en materia de productividad, falta de disciplina y estancamiento nacional.

Cuando la crisis arrecia, los más débiles deberán sufrir castigos más severos, siempre, víctimas de las mismas sirenas audiovisuales:

[ .. ] The euro was created to bring economic stability to Europe. However, the politicians who promoted European Monetary Union ignored inherent flaws in the project. The credit crisis has exposed these flaws. As a result, a number of the weaker eurozone members are facing severe deflation and a quite desperate economic outlook.
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It was hoped that the euro would bring faster and more stable economic growth, while exporting Germany’s record of price stability to other members of the single currency. But many potential economic problems with European Monetary Union were identified decades ago. In 1973 Derek Mitchell, a British Treasury official, observed that the loss of exchange rate flexibility would remove a simple method for rectifying imbalances between Europe’s economies. Without the option of exchange rate depreciation, once imbalances appeared “equilibrium could only then be restored”, declared Mr Mitchell, “by inflation in the ‘high performance’ countries and unemployment and stagnation in the ‘low performance’ countries, unless central provision is made for the imbalances to be offset by massive and speedy resource transfers”.
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Europeans are paying the price for the oversights of their former political masters. Since the euro came into existence a decade ago, consumer prices in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain have risen by an average of about 20 percentage points more than in Germany. They have also experienced lower productivity growth. In addition, they have run large current account deficits and, with the exception of Italy, have experienced tremendous housing bubbles and credit booms. The ECB inadvertently contributed to the credit booms by setting an excessively low interest rate for fast-growing economies, such as Ireland.
In the past, the weaker European economies faced with the current crisis would have simply devalued their currencies. With that option closed by monetary union, their economic outlook appears dire. Spain’s unit labour costs are currently about 20 per cent higher than Germany’s, according to Andrew Hunt Economics. Unemployment is rapidly approaching 15 per cent of the workforce. To regain competitiveness, Spain would have to cut costs sharply, including wages.
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As the credit ratings for the peripheral members of the eurozone are downgraded and their borrowing costs rise relative to Germany, there has been speculation that some countries may choose to ditch the euro. The trouble is that EMU is an economic roach motel – it’s easier to check in than it is to quit. Leaving the euro would be a painful and messy business. It would require breaking supposedly “irreversible” treaty commitments and disentangling a web of euro-denominated financial obligations. As former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt says “the great strength of the euro [is] that nobody can leave it without damaging his own country and his own economy in a very severe way”.
However, the alternatives aren’t pleasant. Germany might be forced to make reluctantly huge fiscal transfers to eurozone countries with large current account deficits, such as Spain. But this wouldn’t make them more competitive. As former Bundesbank president Karl-Otto Poehl says: “The other European countries have no choice [but] to embark on a course of cost-cutting.” [Financial Times, 2 febrero 09. By Edward Chancellor, EMU on the rocks and all exits closed].

Las negritas son mías.

• Economía en este Infierno.