¿Qué piensan los economistas europeos más influyentes del nuevo modelo de financiación autonómica española…?
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Cosas muy simples y brutales:
-Quienes más gastan -los gobiernos autonómicos- lo hacen sin control fiscal: gastando por su cuenta y con cierto relajo lo que otros pagan.
-Quien debiera controlar el gasto -el Estado, el gobierno central- amontona nuevas deudas que deberán pagar todos los contribuyentes, mañana.
Dicho de otro modo: Los presupuestos del Estado preparan la fragilidad y dependencia de mañana y El Flautista de Hamelín prepara la nueva crisis de España.
El Economist lo cuenta de esta manera:
Everyone’s a winner in Alice in Zapateroland
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Even those regions run by the opposition People’s Party (PP), which include Madrid and Valencia, did not vote against the offer. They abstained. They do not like the new system but, facing economic problems of their own, prefer to take the money. The deal is frustratingly vague about numbers, though some regions, such as Catalonia, will be bigger winners than others. It is the financing model that best reflects the reality of Spain, said Mr Zapatero.
So if everyone is a winner, who loses? The central government will have less, says Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, of the University of Pennsylvania. Economists think the deal will increase the budget deficit—already heading towards 12% of GDP—by one percentage point. The finance minister, Elena Salgado, admits the deal will increase the central budget deficit a bit, but argues it will mostly transfer existing debt from the regions to the central government. Future taxpayers are losers too, as they must pay off Spain’s debt in the long term.
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The new deal certainly reflects one of Spain’s new realities: the big spenders of public money are regional governments, who run education, health and myriad other services. It did not, however, fix one big problem. Regional governments may decide where a lot of the tax money goes, but have little influence over how it is raised (except in the Basque Country and Navarra, which remain outside this deal). So there is less pressure on them to be efficient.
The spread of devolution has been a game of follow-the-leader: independent-minded regions such as the Basque Country and Catalonia show the way; the others demand equal treatment. The latest financing rules are, in many ways, a result of Catalonia’s statute of autonomy, passed by the Socialists in 2006. Under Mr Zapatero, devolution continues apace. What no one can say is where, or when, it will end. [ .. ] [The Economist, 30 julio 2009, Spanish devolution and the budget. All must have prizes].
Las negritas son mías.