España y los españoles inspiran confianza.
[ .. ]
El sistema políticos y los partidos no inspiran ninguna: y esa desconfianza internacional hacia partidos y sistema político puede tener un costo grave para los españoles.
Esa es la conclusión de Standard & Poor’s (S&P), cuyo último informe advierte sobre los riesgos de “fragmentación”.
Allí donde yo hablo de “balcanización”, S&P habla de “fragmentación”. Las conclusiones son las mismas, catastróficas:
Balcanización política de España, 2.
Balcanización política de España.
¿Inmovilismo? ¿República bolivariana? ¿Cuál de las Españas saldrá adelante?
S&P lo dice con una prosa de otra índole:
Structural reforms passed in Spain since 2010 have increased competitiveness, jobs, and exports.
Uncertainties about economic performance remain, however, ahead of next year’s regional and general elections and in the face of weakening external demand.
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The potential that next year’s general elections could lead to a fragmented political environment, at the central and regional levels, may also lead to fiscal and structural policy slippages. This could jeopardize medium-term government deficit and economic growth targets. That said, one of our key assumptions is that tensions between the central government and regional authorities will abate. In this context, our base case is that the region of Catalonia remains part of Spain. Were Catalonia to cease to be part of the Kingdom of Spain, we believe that elements of the sovereign’s credit metrics, including the average level of per capita GDP, external accounts, and government finance position, would weaken. This would likely affect our sovereign credit rating on Spain… S&P, 14 noviembre 2014, Ratings On Spain Affirmed At ‘BBB/A-2’; Outlook Stable.
Las negritas son mías.
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