Cosas de Financial Times:

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Financial Times, 2 / 3 junio 2015. For Spain’s Mariano Rajoy, Greece crisis is a political gift.

“Un regalo para Rajoy”.

“Un desastre para Podemos”.

“Para los españoles, puede parecer obvio que Grecia está en una situación de caos, víctima de la mala gestión de Tsipras. Los beneficios para el PP son evidentes”.

“Las turbulencias griegas pueden ayudar a Rajoy de dos maneras: 1. Recentrando el debate nacional en los temas económicos, alejando el debate de la corrupción. 2. Insistiendo que no hay otras alternativas que la austeridad y las reformas”.

“Podemos tiene mucho que perder, los próximos días y las próximas semanas”.

“Parece que Podemos están “distanciándose” de Tsiriza”.

Grecia y España tienen cosas muy graves y profundas en común.

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July 2, 2015 1:15 pm

For Spain’s Mariano Rajoy, Greece crisis is a political gift

Tobias Buck in Madrid

Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish prime minister, has mostly kept a low profile in the escalating conflict between Athens and its international creditors. At home, however, he has relentlessly pushed the same message: That could have been us. It isn’t. You’re welcome!

With a general election looming later this year, Mr Rajoy has used the economic chaos in Greece as a chilling backdrop to advertise his own government’s crisis management. Madrid took tough and unpopular decisions at the height of the crisis, he told a radio show on Tuesday, adding: “Seeing what is happening to others right now, one has to say: it was worth it.”

The economic turbulence in Greece is likely to help Mr Rajoy in two important ways: first, they refocus the political debate in Spain away from corruption issues towards the economy — the field on which the prime minister feels most secure. Second, they help reinforce Madrid’s central message to voters — that there was no alternative to the austerity measures and structural reforms that Mr Rajoy pursued in response to the crisis.

Over the past week, Spain and Greece have indeed provided a study in contrasts. Just days before Athens was forced to shutter its banks and skip a €1.5bn payment to the International Monetary Fund, the central bank in Madrid raised its growth forecast once again.

The Spanish economy is now widely expected to expand by more than 3 per cent this year, twice as fast as the eurozone average. Consumer spending is bouncing back sharply, amid mounting evidence that Spaniards are starting to feel more bullish about their economic future.

Crucially, signs of contagion from Greece have been fairly limited: Spanish bond yields rose on Monday but have stabilised since and remain below the level reached last week.

Investors and analysts alike seem confident that the Greek crisis will — at least for now — inflict only marginal damage on Spain and the rest of the eurozone.

“This is good electoral news for Rajoy and the Popular party. They can now turn to Spanish voters and say: See, this is what happens when you elect irresponsible parties. You get nasty results,” said José Fernández-Albertos, a political analyst at Spain’s CSIC research council.

José Ignacio Torreblanca, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, made a similar point: “What is obvious to Spaniards is that Greece is in chaos and [Greek prime minister] Alexis Tsipras has not managed the situation well. That benefits Rajoy and the PP almost by default. He doesn’t even have to say very much.”

For the anti-austerity Podemos party, meanwhile, Greece poses far more risks than opportunities. Founded only last year, Podemos has emerged as a key player in Spanish politics. Polls suggest it could win as much as 20 per cent of the vote, potentially giving it an important say in the formation of the next government.

A close ally of Mr Tsipras’s Syriza movement, Podemos has much to lose in the coming days and weeks — both from a Greek climbdown and from a deepening of the economic crisis.

Undeterred, Podemos leaders rushed to renew their vows of allegiance this week, issuing a statement that praised the Greek government’s “exemplary” handling of the debt stand-off.
In another show of solidarity, Pablo Iglesias, the Podemos leader, changed his Twitter profile picture: it now shows him side-by-side with Mr Tsipras.

Hardcore Podemos supporters are unlikely to turn against Mr Iglesias as a result of the Greek turmoil, say analysts. In the long run, the party may also be calculating that a firm anti-austerity stance will place them on the right side of a divide running through European politics.

For the moment, however, supporting Greece’s embattled government is likely to undermine the party’s appeal to Spanish middle class voters. “I think this very much limits Podemos’s ability to grow in the centre,” said Mr Fernández-Albertos.
Electoral calculations aside, Podemos may have little choice other than to stick with its partners, he added. “Given how much they have already invested in Syriza, it would look weird for Podemos to distance itself now.”