Hay quienes temen que el cambio climático tenga un triple costo ecológico, turístico y económico, amenazante para el Mediterráneo español.

Financial Times cita un informe oficial de la Comisión europea, que avanza amenazas inquietantes: Los países del Norte pueden cambiar sus hábitos, sueños y fantasmas de sol y playa. El cambio climático puede amenazar los flujos turísticos hacia el Sur, con un costo de más de 100.000 millones de euros, los próximos años.

Otros datos:

Those around the Mediterranean who have been slow to act to curb greenhouse gas emissions, such as Italy and Spain, would suffer most from «drought, reduced soil fertility, fire and other climate-change driven factors», according to the study.

«Plants and animals associated with certain geographic regions are moving – or dying,» the report says, backing up anecdotal evidence from gardeners and amateur naturalists.

Ironically, those countries most committed to combating climate change, such as the UK and Sweden, would gain, with warmer temperatures bringing bigger crop yields and fewer deaths from cold. Crop yields would rise up to 70 per cent in northern Europe but fall by up to a fifth in the south, depending on the temperature increase.

The sea level could rise by up to a metre. As soon as 2020 the total cost would be €4.4bn (£2.96bn) under the first scenario, €5.9bn under the more extreme one, rising to €42.5bn by 2080.

Shoring up coastal de-fences and rebuilding beaches would save two-thirds of the money in the long run, reducing the cost to €2.2bn a year under the rosy scenario.

The ocean would acidify, hitting fish stocks. Fish would also migrate northwards. Droughts and floods would be more severe. The cost of a flood in the Danube basin, as suffered by Hungary a few years ago, could rise 19 per cent. An extra 240,000 people would be affected.

Northern Europeans would be able to holiday at home as the North and Baltic seas warmed. This would jeopardise the €100bn a year spent on holidays in southern Europe. «The annual migration . . . in search of ‘sun, sand and sea’ is the single largest flow of tourists across the globe, accounting for a sixth of all tourist trips in 2000,» the report says.

• Financial Times, 6 enero 2007. EU’s grim climate change warning, by Andrew Bounds.