“La situación está empeorando” [ .. ] “La inflación continúa creciendo”…

[ .. ]

Si entiendo bien lo que cuenta Financial Times, desde ayer tarde, la crisis pudiera acentuarse o, en el mejor de los casos, ahondar la incertidumbre en varios frentes. Los pesimistas temen una subida (¿improbable?) de los tipos, que agravaría el problema de las hipotecas y el mercado inmobiliario. Los optimistas esperan que la agravación del precio del petróleo “ponga techo” al precio del dinero.

Crecimiento a la baja, crisis a la alza:

The downturn in Spain’s residential housing market is gathering pace. [ .. ] “The situation is getting worse,” said Juan Carlos Martínez Lázaro, an economics professor at the Instituto de Empresa business school in Madrid. [ .. ] Most economists agree this year’s GDP growth rate will be less than 2 per cent, compared with 4 per cent in 2006. The government, meanwhile, has promised to speed up planned public works programmes to help offset the housing collapse. [ .. ] Although bad, the home sale figures – which track contract exchanges on new and used properties – tell only part of the story. [Financial Times, 28/29 mayo 08. Mark Mulligan y Richard Milne, Spanish housing dips further].

Inflación a la alza, hipotecas más duras:

As a result, eurozone inflation has probably risen from 3.3 per cent to 3.6 per cent this month – the same as in March but otherwise the highest rate for almost 16 years. Official figures are released on Friday. Inflation could hit rates approaching 4 per cent in coming months, economists added.

Since the start of the global financial market crisis, the ECB has made clear that its interest rate policy would remain focused on controlling inflation. Next week, it will mark a year of keeping eurozone interest rates unchanged at 4 per cent.
Until recently, evidence that the eurozone economy was slowing – and decelerating dramatically in some countries, such as Spain – had been expected to lead to the bank following the US Federal Reserve and cutting interest rates later this year.

But the latest oil price surge has changed the interest rate outlook significantly. Earlier this week, Axel Weber, president of Germany’s Bundesbank, warned that an ECB interest rate increase was still possible, and financial markets have priced in a quarter percentage point rise by the end of the year.

Mr Weber is considered among the most “hawkish” members of the ECB’s governing council, and most economists still think a rise in interest rates is unlikely. But the central bank is now expected to remain on hold for some time to come – possibly well into 2009.

The ECB has been careful not to send any clear signals on the likely direction of its next move. The central bank would talk tough about combating inflation dangers, but “its hands are tied”, said Thomas Koch, economist at HSH Nordbank. With parts of the eurozone witnessing a sharp growth deceleration and higher oil prices also slowing economic activity, “I find it very difficult to believe that the ECB would raise interest rates”. [Financial Times, 28 / 29 mayo 08. Ralph Atkins, Eurozone inflation rebounds to record levels].

“¡Más Madera..!”, grita Groucho, en su locomotora, rumbo su incierto destino.

● Economía en este Infierno.