Pocas dudas. Mucha incertidumbre.

[ .. ]

¿Rubalcaba..? Out.
Rajoy… De momento, la cuadratura del círculo:

-«Austeridad sin dolor«.
-«Parecer moderado para ganar votos, parecer severo para ganar el respeto de Bruselas y los mercados«.

–¿Cómo controlar el gasto de las comunidades autónomas?
–Riesgo de un gobierno en minoría.
–Herencia de una Deuda colosal…

… Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, stands virtually no chance of winning the vote. Polls suggest that Mariano Rajoy, leader of the opposition conservative People’s Party (PP), looks certain to triumph.

Mr Rajoy realises that what Spaniards most want are jobs and a sound economy. But he also offers something that stretches credibility: austerity without pain. “I do not intend to make social cuts,” he says.

Since May, when the PP soared to victory over the Socialists in local and regional elections, voters have had a sneak preview of the party in office. The PP now runs 11 of Spain’s 17 autonomous governments; this matters in a decentralised country where regional administrations accounted for almost a third of the overall budget deficit last year.

Mr Rajoy faces a dilemma over the coming months. To win votes he must seem moderate, but to gain respect from the markets and Brussels he must seem severe. For the moment, votes are what counts. One recent poll showed that the Socialists had cut the PP’s lead to seven percentage points. If that transpires on election day, Mr Rajoy would find himself at the head of a minority government, with less clout over the economy.
Either way, cutting the deficit is likely to be one of his hardest tasks. He is against raising taxes so, if growth does not pick up, he must cut spending instead. This year Spain is aiming to bring the deficit down from 9.2% of GDP to 6%. Next year’s target is 4.4%. In private, some in the PP acknowledge that Ms Salgado has made a good start. It is now time for their leader to show how he means to follow her. [ .. ] [The Economist, 6 agosto 2011.Anyone want to run this country?].

Las negritas son mías.

• Zapatero, Rajoy y el Estado de miseria de España.

• España en este Infierno.