“Decíamos ayer…” El G20 inicia la metamorfosis del capitalismo. Catorce horas más tarde, las voces más respetadas en la escena financiera internacional temen que la cumbre del G20 -que ayer anunciaba la emergencia de un “nuevo capitalismo”- se haya quedado corta, con respuestas “irrelevantes” contra el “cataclismo” en curso.

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Financial Times habla de “medidas irrelevantes” contra la “recesión global”…

[ .. ] What moved the markets? Certainly not the way G20 leaders fawned over Barack Obama while announcing a welter of measures largely irrelevant to the immediate problem of the global recession, including a clampdown on tax havens, bonuses and big hedge funds. [ .. ] The reality, of course, is that the world remains hostage to the health of the financial system. All the evidence from financial crises past makes clear that sustainable recovery is contingent on a purge of contaminated balance sheets. That process is far from complete. Whether the G20 claims a consensus on regulation is not going to create jobs in El Centro, California, where unemployment is running at close to 25 per cent, or anywhere else. That the G20 has said nothing worth hearing on fiscal stimulus is welcome. Given that many states, notably the UK, are close to their fiscal ceilings, any remaining borrowing capacity must be devoted to fixing banks. [Financial Times, 3 abril 09. Lex Column, G20].

New York Times teme que la cumbre del G20 se haya quedado peligrosamente corta…

[ .. ] The meeting certainly produced more than the usual photo ops and spin — and its participants did not go away yelling at one another as they have in the past. [ .. ] Where they fell dangerously short was their refusal to commit to spend the hundreds of billions of dollars in additional fiscal stimulus that the world economy needs to pull out of its frighteningly steep dive. With consumer spending and business investment collapsing around the world, rich countries are the only ones that have the resources to do what is needed. [ .. ]  In the end, necessary regulation will not be transnational enough for European tastes and too binding for American tastes. [ .. ] [New York Times, 3 abril 09. The Economic Summit].

Economist teme que los gobiernos estén haciendo demasiado poco. A su modo de ver, la deflación (menos crecimiento, más paro) sea el horizonte más inmediato en la escena internacional. Deflación que será más o menos grave, en cada país, a la luz de las políticas domésticas…

[ .. ] Despite unprecedented stimulus, the biggest risk is still that governments overall do too little [ .. ] Worse, the recovery, when it comes, will be feeble, as the overindebted rebuild their balance-sheets and export-dependent countries reorient their economies towards domestic spending. [ .. ] The OECD expects growth to stay well below its trend rate in 2010, widening the rich world’s output gap—the distance between the economy’s actual and potential performance—to an extraordinary 8.5% of GDP. That would push jobless rates into double digits in much of the rich world and leave many countries perilously close to deflation. Faced with this cataclysm, policymakers have been fighting back with the biggest and most synchronised macroeconomic stimulus since the second world war. [ .. ] Deflation is still the greater worry [ .. ] Two questions spring to the fore. Are these responses, however extraordinary, adequate? And if in doubt, should prudent policymakers err towards doing too much or too little?
At a global level, the answer is surely that boldness beats timidity. Of course there are risks in soaring government debt and swelling central-bank balance-sheets. But scaling back monetary and fiscal stimulus will be easier than digging the world economy out of a deflationary hole which, if the OECD’s forecast is right, remains an uncomfortably large risk. The lesson of every big banking crisis in recent history is that rapid and decisive government action to clean up balance-sheets results in a quicker recovery and smaller long-term damage to the public purse. That is all the more pertinent this time, because the usual route out of big banking busts—recovery on the back of strong global growth—seems closed.
For individual countries, however, the calculus is often different, particularly on fiscal policy. From widening spreads on many countries’ sovereign bonds to Britain’s failure to sell all the gilts it wanted to at a recent auction, there are signs that stimulus has its limits for some. Gordon Brown has run out of room; Ireland is having to tighten fiscal policy. For all the efforts to bolster the IMF, some emerging-market borrowers look even worse off. Today’s situation is grim, but currency crises and sovereign defaults would only make the mess worse. [ .. ] [Economist, 3 abril 09. The G20 and the world economy].

Las negritas son mías.

• El G20 inicia la metamorfosis del capitalismo.
• Economía y Diplomacia en este Infierno.