Constatación aritmética y estadística del retroceso histórico:
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The Economist, 15 junio 2023,The problems ailing Western Europe’s left are not just cyclical…
«…At the end of 2021 Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats took power in Germany in coalition with the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats. But the moment proved fleeting. In France’s elections in 2022 the centre-left Socialists were all but wiped out. Hard-right parties now hold or share power in Italy and Sweden, and in Finland are in coalition negotiations. The centre-right seems poised to keep power in Greece, where leftist parties performed woefully in a general election on May 21st. Spain’s Socialists are heading into an early election they look likely to lose. In Germany Mr Scholz’s coalition is divided and increasingly unpopular.
The left’s problems start with the once-great social democratic parties. In the early 2000s in western Europe they averaged nearly 30% of the vote. They have declined steadily since the global financial crisis in 2008, to just above 20%. Having embraced free-market economics during the “Third Way” period of the 1990s, most centre-left parties endorsed fiscal austerity after the financial crisis. That was a huge mistake, argues Björn Bremer of the Max Planck Institute in Cologne: voters could no longer see the difference between the centre-left and the centre-right.
Tensions with the radicals could spell the end of centre-left rule in Spain as well. Pedro Sánchez, the Socialist prime minister, has just called a snap election, in which he faces a challenge from a new leftist outfit called Sumar. The radical left elsewhere is doing poorly; Syriza, a far-left party that botched Greece’s response to the euro crisis while in power between 2015-19, was crushed in that country’s election on May 21st. Portugal’s long-sitting Socialist government has successfully teamed up with radicals, but it too is losing popularity.
Optimistic progressives note that Europe’s centre-right is having difficulties, too. Yet the best argument that the western European left is not in crisis may be that it was never as strong as many imagined. Since 1960, outside the Nordic countries and Iberia, the right has held power far more often than the left. To remain a contender, the left will have to reinvent itself. The question is how. The Economist, 15 junio 2023, The problems ailing Western Europe’s left are not just cyclical.
Las negritas son mías.
Muy groseramente…
Hacia el año 2000, las izquierdas socialistas representaban aproximadamente el 30 % de los votos europeos. Hoy apenas llegan al 20 %.
En los países nórdicos, en Alemania, en Francia, en Italia, en prácticamente toda Europa, las izquierdas socialistas han perdido terreno y las izquierdas populistas no consiguen salir del hoyo minoritario.
A juicio del Economist, las izquierdas socialistas debieran «reinventarse». Pero, al día de hoy, nadie sabe cómo. ¿Tiene futuro Frankenstein?
Hace días, el CIDOB (Barcelona Centre for International Affairs) llegaba a esta conclusión estadísticas, así mismo:
En Europa crecen las derechas, del centro a los extremos.
Hundimiento histórico de las izquierdas francesas.
Los obreros abandonan a las izquierdas para votar a las derechas y extremas derechas.
Aparece en Francia una ultraderecha con posiciones más radicales que Marine Le Pen.
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