El País, 31 mayo 08. Evolución cuota mensual de las hipotecas.
La prensa financiera internacional no comparte el optimismo controlado de Pedro Solbes.
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Le Monde, más paro:
L’ambition exprimée par José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero de finir l’année avec moins de 8 % de chômeurs sera peut-être difficile à atteindre. [ .. ] [Le Monde, 30 mayo 08. Cécile Chambraud, En Espagne, la crise du BTP fait remonter le chômage].
Financial Times, debilidad del crecimiento e inflación alarmante:
[ .. ] But eurozone growth is slowing – dramatically in some member countries, such as Spain – which should eventually help ease price pressures, and official interest rates are widely-expected to be left at 4 per cent at the ECB’s meeting next week.
Still, with eurozone inflation forecast to rise to rates approaching 4 per cent in coming months before declining only gradually, many economists expect eurozone borrowing costs to remain on hold for some time, possibly well into next year.
Highlighting the vulnerability of eurozone economic growth, Germany reported a dramatic 1.7 per cent fall in retail sales in April, extending a 2.2 per cent drop in March. Consumer spending has long been a significant weakness of Europe’s largest economy – which has seen growth powered by exports and investment.
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Dirk Schumacher at Goldman Sachs in Frankfurt said the latest figure was “ridiculously low” and the retail sales data were notoriously unreliable. But “even a significant upward revision will not change the overall picture of continuing sluggishness of consumption in Germany”.
Fears about higher prices may help explain why consumers are holding back from spending across the eurozone, and Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, is likely to strike a hawkish tone after next Thursday’s meeting. Earlier this week, Axel Weber, president of Germany’s Bundesbank – who sits on the ECB’s governing council – even raised the possibility of an ECB interest rate increase. [ .. ] [Financial Times, 30 mayo 08. Ralph Atkins, Eurozone inflation surges to 3.6%].
Wall Street Journal, amenazas de un consumo familiar víctima del crecimiento del paro:
Economic sentiment along Europe’s southern fringe continued to deteriorate in May, diverging further from more stable outlooks in northern Europe.
The European Commission’s measure of economic sentiment in the euro zone was unchanged at 97.1 in May, suggesting that economic growth in the second quarter will slow to around 1.5% from 2.2% in the first three months of the year, analysts said.
But the stability in the confidence measure masked divergence inside the currency bloc. Strong rebounds in industrial sentiment in Germany and Belgium made up for deterioration in France, Spain and Greece. Italy also remained weak.
“The current cycle is characterized by relative resilience at the core and a more marked slowdown at the periphery,” said Daniele Antonucci, an economist at Merrill Lynch in London.
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Domestic consumption in Spain is being hit by rising unemployment and consumer price inflation, putting consumers in their most pessimistic mood since the early 1990s. Spanish retail sales fell an annual 3.4% in calendar-adjusted terms in April, according to government data released Thursday.
Even Europe’s stronger economies could be showing signs of the impact of a strong euro, which hurts exports, and tighter credit conditions.
German unemployment rose slightly in May in seasonally adjusted terms for the first time in 12 months, disappointing expectations of a drop, data from the country’s labor office showed Thursday. [ .. ] [The Wall Street Journal, 30 mayo 08. Emma Charlton, Euro-Zone Nations Are Split Over Views on the Economy].
● Economía en este Infierno.