Desde San Francisco, un lector de Financial Times se dirige al director del influyente matutino financiero para comentar el Eclipse de Europa, visto desde Washington o el Viejo continente, oponiendo a Eurabia el concepto de USalsa, fruto de las prometedoras semillas de la “quinta nación” española, lejos de España.
Financial Times, Cartas al director, 20 octubre 2006:
Immigration could produce a USalsa
By Claus Lund
From Mr Claus Lund.
Sir, Gideon Rachman makes some excellent points regarding the American doomsayers’ projections for the European population (“The American prophets of Europe’s doom are half wrong”, October 17). It may be worth noting that the US fertility rate at 2.09 (right between North Korea at 2.10 and Guyana at 2.04) is below the estimated point of long-term population stability, but I still heard on the radio this morning that the US population had reached 300m and is expected to increase quite a lot over the next 50 years.
The European Union average fertility rate is approximately 1.5, but an interesting fact is that the wealthier countries in the EU have higher fertility rates, such as Denmark with 1.8 and Sweden and Finland not far below that. The fertility rates in these countries have increased from a temporary dip usually ascribed to societal changes in women’s employment patterns. It is not unlikely that a similar development may take place in the less wealthy EU member states such as Italy, Spain and France in the coming years.
While Muslim countries certainly have provided immigrants to the EU, these countries have seen significant changes in fertility patterns too: Turkey has a fertility rate of 1.9, Algeria almost the same, while Egypt has seen its rate drop to 2.8. These countries will not see the same population pressures in the future and less emigration is a likely result. It should also be noted that Muslim immigrants to the EU experience a mean reversion to the fertility patterns of the host country over time, so while the Muslim population as a percentage may increase it will not – as Mr Rachman pointed out in his article – overwhelm the host countries in any near future.
The change in the population make-up may actually be more significant in the US than in the EU over the next 50 years. The Latino immigration to the US seems to me to have more significant impact on the culture than the Muslim influence in the EU: while some Americans may choose to refer to Europe as Eurabia, the US may earn the nickname of USalsa!
Belvedere Trust Mortgage Corp,
San Francisco, CA 94104, US